AFCON 2025: Why Morocco Should Win Its Quarterfinal Against Cameroon... 120
The quarterfinal of the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations between Morocco and Cameroon, scheduled for January 9, 2026, at Prince Moulay Abdellah Stadium in Rabat, promises to be the hottest clash of the quarters. A matchup with the taste of revenge from another AFCON, the 1988 edition.
But we're in 2025, and a lot of water has flowed under the bridges since then. As unbeaten hosts, the Atlas Lions display total mastery with 7 goals scored for just 1 conceded on penalty in four matches, outpacing the Indomitable Lions and their 6 goals for 3 conceded. This numerical superiority, fueled by Brahim Díaz's spark, El Kaabi's indomitability, a relentless defensive midfielder, a rugged defense, and home crowd advantage, positions Morocco as the clear favorite in an intense technical-tactical duel.
Even if not deemed flawless by some, Morocco's run has been effective despite losing two key pieces: Saïss and, even more, playmaker Azzedine Ounahi.
The Atlas Lions topped Group A with 7 points: a clinical 2-0 win over Comoros, an offensive festival 3-0 against Zambia, and a strategically understandable 1-1 draw against Mali, proving rare versatility. In the round of 16, a controlled 1-0 against Tanzania confirmed their solidity, with zero goals conceded in three of their four outings. This iron defense, led by trio Yassine Bounou, Nayef Aguerd, and Mazraoui, backed by tireless El Aynaoui, yielded only once on penalty to Mali. Overall, a +6 goal difference evoking the discipline of a team chasing continental glory at home. And Hakimi was only just returning for the last match played.
This time, for the quarters, they'll face a solid but vulnerable Cameroon, marked by the team's youth and disjointed play in many phases so far. However, their margin for improvement is huge, and the metamorphosis and step-up could precisely happen here in the quarterfinal.
The Indomitable Lions snatched first place in Group F with 7 points too: a precious 1-0 against Gabon, a hard-fought 1-1 against Côte d'Ivoire, and a laborious 2-1 over Mozambique. The two goals conceded in the group stage already highlighted collective defensive failings. Their quarterfinal qualification with a 2-1 over South Africa in the round of 16 showed character but also flaws: three goals conceded in total, including one from an individual error against the Bafana Bafana. Less sharp up front with only 6 goals, they rely on opportunistic realism, far from Moroccan fluidity.
Morocco, meanwhile, benefits from Brahim Díaz, a maestro in the spotlight. He's likely living his golden age in the AFCON: 4 goals in 4 matches, a historic record for a Moroccan in a single finals, including a gem in the 64th against Tanzania. He's clearly responding to his club coach who seems unsure how to harness his genius. The first Lion to score in every consecutive match, the Madrid man excels in tight spaces, with Ayoub El Kaabi (3 goals) as his faithful, cutting lieutenant. Facing a solid Cameroonian defense with imperial but sometimes hesitant André Onana, this individual threat—even if small in stature: 4 shots on target per match on average—could tip a locked scenario, as in the round of 16 where his runs unsettled the Taifa Stars.
Overall technical mastery and ball dominance also tilt toward Morocco, who crush the collective stats: 2,184 successful passes, an absolute record, 89% accuracy, and 71% possession against Tanzania—an ocean of control.
Achraf Hakimi, back with a bang and an assist, will surely animate a hellish right flank, while El Khanouss, just settling in, dictates the midfield tempo despite Azzedine Ounahi's absence. In contrast, Cameroon lags at 77% accuracy and 43% average possession, struggling in quick transitions with Frank Zambo Anguissa as their sole pivot. This technical asymmetry promises a prolonged siege by the Atlas Lions on the opposing box. With Amrabat as sentinel to handle Anguissa, it's game over.
Other facts and assets also favor the Atlas Lions: psychological and historical factors could be decisive.
Euphoric hosts, the Moroccans are riding a 23-match unbeaten streak and a fired-up crowd in Rabat, where the atmosphere will echo the 2022 World Cup. The overall head-to-head favors Cameroon with 6 wins, 5 draws, 2 losses in 13 duels, untouchable in AFCON with 2 wins and 1 draw, but the last two clashes tilt to Morocco: a 1-0 in 2019 AFCON qualifiers and a humiliating 4-0 at the 2020 CHAN.
This is thus a generational arm-wrestle for sure, but Morocco's freshness with fewer minutes played and perfect adaptation to the climate outweighs the Indomitable Lions' experience. These combined elements forge an ideal scenario for a conquering Morocco chasing a second star, to be decided at the final whistle at Moulay Abdellah complex, Friday around 10 PM.
While a surprise elimination is always possible in a tournament as tight as the AFCON, Morocco holds today's strongest statistical signals for victory:
✔ Best overall offensive output
✔ Only one team that scored against them vs. two for Cameroon
✔ Collective mastery of ball and tempo
✔ Two scorers in top form (Díaz and El Kaabi)
✔ Home turf and fan support advantage
These elements form an objective basis for arguing a Moroccan success in this quarterfinal.